## Market Snapshot The market on whether Iran will close its airspace by May 8 is currently priced at 17% YES, down from 18% 24 hours ago. For May 31, the probability stands at 37.5% YES, down from 42% previously. This market reflects activity around Iran’s defensive measures. ## Key Takeaways – The use of…
Placing crypto alongside shadow banking and weapons procurement means Treasury believes it is being used for actual trade settlement. US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent posted on X on April 29 that Washington’s sanctions campaign is now going after Iran’s “access to crypto,” alongside oil exports, shipping networks, and shadow banking channels. It is the…
Peter Thiel’s Founders Fund has closed a new $6 billion fund, marking the largest raise in the venture capital firm’s history. Summary Founders Fund closed a record $6 billion fund focused mainly on late-stage startup investments. Limited partners provided $4.5 billion, while Thiel and insiders contributed another $1.5 billion. The raise shows major venture firms…
## Market Snapshot The “US Invasion of Iran” market currently reflects a decreased likelihood of a US invasion by December 31, 2026, with pricing suggesting a reduction in YES outcomes. The “Iran Leadership Status by End of 2026” market indicates decreased probability of a change in Iran’s leadership by the end of 2026. ## Key…
While generating a net profit above $1.04 billion, Tether’s excess reserve buffer hit a record $8.23 billion, concentrated in short-duration liquid instruments. The leading stablecoin issuer has released its attestation report for the first quarter of 2026, revealing a net profit of more than $1 billion. The company was able to generate such profit…
Entering 2026, the global cryptocurrency market remains highly active. Strategy’s $2.57 billion Bitcoin purchase once again highlights institutional investors’ continued interest in the long-term value of Bitcoin. It has also brought greater attention to Bitcoin Cloud Mining and Cryptocurrency Mining among global users. As Bitcoin and crypto assets become more widely adopted, more users are…
## Market Snapshot The prediction market for “Spirit Airlines shutdown/liquidation by May 31” is currently priced at 100% YES, confirming the carrier’s shutdown. The market reflects a complete resolution following recent developments. ## Key Takeaways – Markets suggest that Spirit Airlines’ shutdown is consistent with a YES outcome. – The confirmation of Spirit Airlines’ liquidation…
Based on historical data, rising futures demand alongside contracting spot demand is associated with unsustained price gains during bear seasons. April ended with bitcoin (BTC) posting a 12% increase – the biggest such gain in a year. Although the asset had corrected slightly to $75,000 by the last day of the month, market participants…
The New York Stock Exchange has filed a rule change with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission to allow tokenized versions of eligible securities to trade on its market. Summary NYSE wants tokenized securities to trade beside traditional shares on the same exchange order book. Eligible tokenized assets must keep the same ticker, CUSIP, rights,…
## Market Snapshot In the “Crude Oil Price Predictions by June” market, current pricing reflects a 100% YES outcome for crude oil hitting $90 by the end of June. This remains unchanged despite the recent OPEC+ decision to increase output quotas. ## Key Takeaways – The OPEC+ decision to increase oil output quotas suggests a…
