The US Senate voted unanimously to bar all senators and their staff from placing bets on political prediction market platforms including Polymarket and Kalshi, with the resolution authored by Republican Senator Bernie Moreno, who also set the end-of-May CLARITY Act deadline. Summary The Senate ban passed unanimously, a notable bipartisan outcome that reflects shared concern…
## Market Snapshot The “Israel Withdraws from Lebanon” market shows a decrease in confidence for a withdrawal by June 30, 2026, now priced at 9.5% YES, down from 10% 24 hours ago. The May 31, 2026, sub-market is priced at 2.8% YES, a slight increase from 2% over the same period. ## Key Takeaways –…
Pi Network confirmed its sponsorship of Consensus 2026 in Miami on May 5 to 7, with co-founders Dr. Chengdiao Fan and Nicolas Kokkalis each scheduled to speak at the Convergence Stage, marking the project’s most prominent mainstream industry appearance as its Protocol 23 smart contract launch on May 11 approaches. Summary Dr. Chengdiao Fan speaks…
## Market Snapshot The “Netanyahu out by June 30” market is currently priced at 5.5% YES, down from 6% seven days ago. This shift suggests reduced expectations for Netanyahu’s ouster amid Israel’s projected economic growth. ## Key Takeaways – Israel’s projected GDP growth of 3.8% appears to support stability in Netanyahu’s administration. – Market pricing…
Popular crypto analyst Ali Martinez has doubled down on a recent prediction of his that the popular cross-border token could be on the verge of a more profound breakout. XRP has remained sluggish over the past few weeks, and even the monthly scale doesn’t show many fluctuations, aside from a couple of rejections at $1.60….
Minneapolis Fed president Neel Kashkari has shifted from penciling in one or two 2026 cuts to a data‑dependent stance as the Iran war and higher oil muddy the inflation path. Summary Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari says he had expected inflation to cool enough to justify cutting interest rates once or twice in 2026, but…
## Market Snapshot Market for “Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on April 30?” is priced at 99.9% YES. This has remained stable from 100% YES over the past 24 hours. The market remains unchanged with no variance in pricing observed. ## Key Takeaways – Huawei’s increased AI chip…
137 Ventures has raised over $700m across two new funds, lifting AUM above $15b as it doubles down on AI agents, robotics, advanced industry and a $10b‑plus SpaceX stake. Summary SpaceX backer 137 Ventures has closed more than $700 million across two new funds, lifting its assets under management above $15 billion. The growth-stage firm…
## Market Snapshot Iran diplomatic meetings are currently priced at 0.1% YES, unchanged from 24 hours ago, but down from 2% a week ago. Military actions against Iran remain at 0.1% YES, consistent with previous levels. The market for US obtaining Iranian enriched uranium is at 8.5% YES. ## Key Takeaways – The bypassing of…
Carrot, a Solana-based DeFi yield protocol, announced its permanent shutdown on April 30, 2026, after losing approximately $8 million in total value locked, roughly half its TVL – to the fallout from the April 1 Drift Protocol exploit that drained an estimated $285 million from one of Solana’s largest perpetual futures platforms. Carrot was not…
