The White House has unveiled a plan to counter AI theft by Chinese firms, focusing on cooperation with US AI companies. The market for Alibaba having the best AI model by April 2026 is under pressure, while the likelihood of Trump visiting China by May 31 sits at 70% YES. Market reaction Traders in the…
The Senate voted 46 to 51 on April 22 to defeat a war powers resolution that would have directed the president to withdraw US armed forces from hostilities against Iran without congressional authorization, marking Democrats’ fifth consecutive failure to advance the measure since the conflict began on February 28. Summary The Senate voted 46-51 to…
Andy Burnham is reportedly eyeing a leadership challenge against Keir Starmer, pushing the “Starmer out by June 30, 2026?” contract to 46.5% YES, up from 41% a day ago. Burnham’s potential move and Labour’s sliding prospects drove the shift. The December 31, 2026 contract sits at 68.5% YES, reflecting a longer-term view of Starmer’s vulnerability….
The House Foreign Affairs Committee advanced two bipartisan bills on April 23 that would give Congress direct oversight authority over US AI chip exports to China and other adversaries, in a direct challenge to the Trump administration’s handling of advanced semiconductor sales. Summary The House Foreign Affairs Committee advanced two bipartisan bills on April 23…
Grayscale staked 102,400 ETH, valued at $237M, through its Ethereum Staking ETF. The Polymarket contract on Ethereum’s price hitting $10,000 by December 31, 2026, sits at 4% YES. Market reaction The December 31 contract remains at 4% YES, unchanged over the past week. Traders appear to read this as a long-term adoption signal rather than…
Here’s what’s new and catching attention around XRP, ETH, and DOGE. Ripple’s cross-border token has slightly retraced over the past week, yet certain indicators suggest that it might be transitioning to a bullish trend. Ethereum (ETH) failed to reach $2,500, and analysts are now divided on its short-term performance. Dogecoin (DOGE) remains the biggest…
President Trump announced on April 23 that Israel and Lebanon have agreed to extend their ceasefire by three weeks after a second round of high-level White House talks involving the Israeli and Lebanese ambassadors, Secretary of State Marco Rubio, Vice President JD Vance, and the US ambassadors to both countries. Summary Trump announced a three-week…
A Hudson Institute report says the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) continues to pose an asymmetric naval threat in the Strait of Hormuz, and the market for Iran successfully targeting ships by April 30 is at 17.8% YES, down from 19% yesterday. The IRGC’s reliance on swarm tactics and drones keeps traders watching for further…
As HSBC, Lloyds, and JPMorgan all commit to tokenized deposits on the Canton Network, Digital Asset Chief Product Officer Bernhard Elsner explains why the instrument is structurally distinct from stablecoins and how Canton’s architecture eliminates bridge risk rather than simply managing it. Summary Tokenized deposits carry the full legal status of a bank deposit, with…
Four coalition aircraft carriers, including three from the US, are now positioned in the Middle East as part of Operation Epic Fury during the Israel-Iran conflict. The market for “Military action against Iran ends by April 1, 2026” reflects low expectations for a near-term resolution. Market reaction The probability of crude oil reaching an all-time…
