Analyst Eyes $8 to $27 XRP Targets After Potential 2026 Bottom

XRP’s nearly 70% drawdown is noticeably smaller than the 85% to 90% losses seen in earlier bear cycles overall.

On June 8, technical analyst ChartNerd shared an XRP cycle breakdown, making the case that the current bear market has been shallower and potentially shorter than previous ones.

Additionally, he said there’s a chance for a cycle bottom before the end of 2026 that could allow the Ripple token to eventually reach $27.

What the Historical Comparison Shows

Per ChartNerd’s analysis, past XRP bear markets have typically lasted between 400 and 790 days, with drawdowns of 85% to 90% from peak levels. The current correction, as of the post, has run for about 350 days and sits at a nearly 70% drop from the July 2025 all-time high of $3.65.

Both figures, the analyst said, are milder than any comparable historical cycle, and he argued that this pattern of lessening severity is itself meaningful.

“The territory for marking a historical bottom between now and EOY is fast approaching,” wrote ChartNerd. “These prices are where we need to start paying attention to the fact that although the chances of an immediate expansion might be low, a cycle bottom could genuinely be on the horizon.”

However, he didn’t rule out XRP being hit by more downside. The macro read is that additional pain in the coming months could still be needed to form the actual cycle low, which would then be followed by an accumulation phase, and then a move toward Fibonacci extension targets of $8, $13, and $27.

The on-chain technician did flag the 2014 bear market as an exception to the pattern. That cycle saw a 96% drop over roughly 210 days to mark its low, but it then took XRP more than 1,200 days to break out beyond its previous high, with a major wick low appearing in late 2017 before a January 2018 peak.

Where XRP Stands in the Broader Picture

At the time of writing, XRP was priced at roughly $1.15, a fall of about 12% from where it stood a week ago and 19% lower than where it was one month ago. During the last week, the Ripple token experienced a fall to its lowest position in 19 months at $1.05. However, after reaching that price, it rallied to $1.20 before pulling back slightly from there.

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Nevertheless, there was a bright spark in that period, namely spot XRP ETFs. These funds closed last week with a net inflow of $2.62 million. That may seem like a pretty small number, but it’s notable considering that their Bitcoin counterparts bled more than $1.7 billion in that period and spot Ethereum ETFs saw outflows of $173 million.

Only HYPE ETFs saw a better run, bringing in nearly $17 million, while funds tracking Litecoin (LTC), Avalanche (AVAX), and Hedera (HBAR) saw zero action.