Bitcoin shows signs of bottoming, but capitulation, ETF outflows, and defensive options markets still threaten recovery.
Bitcoin’s market appears to be in the later stages of a bear market, but the signals confirming a broader turnaround have not yet emerged. On-chain data shared by Glassnode shows the asset has recovered from $57,800 to nearly $63,000 over the past week, but it remains below both the True Market Mean of $76,600 and the Short-Term Holder Cost Basis of $72,200.
This leaves the asset in a “deep value” zone.
BTC Bottoming
Bitcoin has now spent about five months trading below both of these levels – one of the longest discount periods in its history. According to Glassnode, such long periods have historically provided the foundation for cyclical bottoms as investors accumulate at prices below the average cost of recent buyers and the broader active market. However, a further decline toward the Realized Price of roughly $53,000 remains possible.
The report identified long-term holders as the primary source of current selling pressure. Since early February, the share of realized value attributed to long-term holder losses has increased from 15% to 43%, which makes this cohort’s capitulation the largest contributor to downside pressure. These investors largely bought near the cycle peak and, after holding through months of losses, are increasingly selling as the downturn tests their conviction.
Glassnode said that this steady wave of distribution has prevented Bitcoin from reclaiming the upper end of its current trading range. The report added that long-term holders’ realized losses, measured on a 30-day moving average basis, recently climbed to around $280 million per day, which is the highest level since December 2022. This was the second major spike recorded during the current bear market.
Unlike the previous spike, however, this wave of capitulation has not yet begun to cool. Glassnode believes that a decline in this metric will be necessary before a credible transition back to bullish conditions can be considered.
Off-chain indicators also continue to point to weak institutional demand despite exhibiting modest improvement. The 30-day average of US spot Bitcoin ETF net flows has remained negative since mid-May. The average daily outflows declined from a peak of $193 million in early June to approximately $88.9 million.
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While the slower pace of withdrawals is viewed as a “tentative positive,” institutions are still reducing exposure overall, which means demand has yet to stabilize. ETF trading activity also remains low, as daily volume ranges between $650 million and $950 million, roughly 80% below the $4.4 billion daily peak recorded in October 2025.
According to the report, both stronger trading activity and a return to neutral or positive ETF flows would be needed to confirm renewed institutional participation.
Defensive Positioning
Derivatives markets present a mixed picture. The options put/call ratio has fallen to 0.56, its lowest level this year, while perpetual futures funding rates indicate traders have cautiously rebuilt long positions after earlier de-risking. Despite this, the options market remained defensive.
“The 25-delta skew, the premium of downside protection over upside, is bid across every tenor. Every selloff since the winter has re-bid it, and late June’s spike to 24% was the most defensive the front end has been since the February selloff. Traders are still paying up to hedge each dip, even as the book leans long.”
Bitcoin also trades about 6% below the options market’s aggregated max pain level of $66,000, the price at which the greatest number of outstanding options would expire worthless and around which spot price has often gravitated as expiry approaches.
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