Key Takeaways
- Kalshi traded $5.33 billion on Nov. 7 and $5.36 billion on Nov. 8, above its $5.30 billion Oct. 24 record.
- Combos made up 75.6% of Saturday’s volume and 74.6% of Sunday’s, after dipping to 58.6% on Election Day.
- The AGA told the Second Circuit that parlays make up two-thirds of Kalshi’s volume and are sports bets.
Kalshi Breaks Its Daily Record Twice in One Weekend
Kalshi recorded $5.33 billion in notional volume on Saturday, Nov. 7, according to the exchange’s daily market data for Nov. 7, and $5.36 billion on Sunday, Nov. 8, according to its market data for Nov. 8. Both days topped the $5.30 billion Kalshi traded on Saturday, Oct. 24, which had been its biggest day and its only day above $5 billion at the time.
This marks the first time Kalshi has traded more than $5 billion on two consecutive days in its daily reports, which run on U.S. Eastern time. Notional volume counts each contract at its full $1 payout and is not the amount traders put at risk.
The weekend came less than a week after Kalshi traded $4.15 billion on Election Day, Nov. 3, which was its busiest weekday but fell short of the October record.
Combos Drove the Weekend Records
Combos, Kalshi’s parlay-style contracts that bundle several outcomes into one, also powered Kalshi’s back-to-back records in mid-October. They accounted for $4.03 billion, or 75.6%, of Saturday’s volume and $4.00 billion, or 74.6%, of Sunday’s. That is back in line with the 75.5% share on Oct. 24, after combos fell to 58.6% of volume on Election Day, when single election markets drew more trading.
Football and crypto filled out the rest. On Saturday, Kalshi’s 15-minute bitcoin contracts traded $259.4 million, just ahead of college football game markets at $258.1 million, while college football spreads added $80.9 million. On Sunday, the bitcoin contracts traded $281.8 million, NFL game markets $240.6 million, and NFL spreads $79.6 million.
Most combo volume ran through a single cross-category series, which traded $3.92 billion on Saturday and $3.23 billion on Sunday. A second cross-category combo series jumped to $763 million on Sunday from $110.3 million a day earlier.
Gaming Industry Calls Kalshi’s Parlays Sports Bets
The records came a day after the American Gaming Association (AGA) took aim at those parlays in court. In an amicus brief filed Nov. 6 in Kalshi’s Second Circuit appeal against New York, the gaming industry’s trade group argued that Kalshi offers “garden-variety sports bets, such as point spreads, proposition bets, and parlays.”
“Parlays represent two-thirds of Kalshi’s volume, and 55% of the parlays transacted are longshots that involve 10 legs or more,” the brief said, citing Event Horizon. The AGA called Kalshi’s argument that its contracts help traders hedge risk “especially absurd regarding parlays,” pointing to a 21-leg parlay spanning games in 11 cities and a “centipede” parlay with 453 legs.
Citing its own tracker, the AGA also estimated that, as of Nov. 2, users under 21 had wagered $9.5 billion on Kalshi, which accepts traders from age 18. New York law bars sports wagering by anyone under 21.
Pressure is building in Washington as well, with a sea change in Congress after the midterm results. Sen. Jeff Merkley, an Oregon Democrat, said Democrats should use their incoming majority to curb prediction markets in a legislative form. “We need to rein in this gambling, and with Democrats taking back control of Congress, now is the time for long-overdue legislative action,” he said in a statement to Politico.
